Probability Estimation

Anxiety often overestimates how likely a feared outcome really is. This exercise helps you identify a worry, examine the actual evidence, and calculate a fairer, more realistic estimate.

🎯 Name the Fear

Identify a specific feared outcome and rate how likely it feels right now, before examining any evidence.

⚖️ Weigh the Evidence

List the real evidence for and against the outcome — focusing on facts rather than how the worry feels.

📉 Revise the Estimate

Re-rate the likelihood with the evidence in front of you. Fears often shrink once you see the facts clearly.

Feared Outcome

What is the specific outcome you're worried might happen?

Initial Likelihood

Before looking at any evidence, how likely does this outcome feel right now? (0–100%)

50%

Examine the Evidence

List the real evidence on both sides. Focus on facts, not feelings.

⚠️ Evidence SUPPORTING the fear

✅ Evidence AGAINST the fear

Revised Likelihood

Now that you've weighed the evidence, how likely is the outcome really? (0–100%)

50%

💡 Notice the gap between your first estimate and your revised one. That difference is the space anxiety was filling with worry rather than fact.